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W1192: Economic, Social, and Ecological Issues of Rangeland Fragmentation that Affect Rangeland Sustainability and Rural Communities

Annual/Termination Reports (SAES-422): [06/13/2007] [09/03/2008] [04/27/2009] [04/27/2011] [10/20/2011]

Date of Annual Report: 06/13/2007

Report Information:
  • Annual Meeting Dates: 01/08/07 to 01/09/07
  • Period the Report Covers: 10/2006 to 09/2007

    • Participants:
    Brief Summary of Minutes of Annual Meeting:
    Annual Meeting of the W1192 Regional Project

    JANUARY 8TH

    At 1:10pm Tex Taylor convened the meeting and thanked Allen Torell for setting up the meeting accomodations.

    Administrative Advisor Report

    Don Snyder gave his administrative report: Fen Hunt apologized for not being able to make it to this meeting. WCC55/WERA55 is pending approval and all the Appendix E that are not turned in need to be completed ASAP. This needs to be finalized by 1/15/07. Also, the special grant federal dollars are changing and all going back to zero for this year, which could affect subsequent years of funding. We should not count on the continuing resolution Congress is passing to carry this forward the same as it has in the past.

    The minutes were approved electronically during the past year.

    State Reports (see full state reports below)

    " Nevada  Tom Harris reported on activities for the state of Nevada. US Forest Service is redoing some EIS work in relation to social accounting models and wanting to apply a linear programming model to this as well. In Elko County, they are also trying to assess the economic impact of rangeland fires as well. This may also relate to the multiperiod analysis others in the group have worked with to calculate the probability of going out of business which is a useful application.

    " Idaho  Rimbey & Torell continue to work on the ranch values model in Arizona , New Mexico, and other areas in the West. Rimbey and Wulfhorst have a project start related to an RMP in Owyhee County re: rangeland management. Rimbey and Wulfhorst also collaborated on a new proposed project (Breaking Into Jail) related to local-food systems in the Treasure Valley. Related to the A to Z Retained Ownership, Inc. project Rimbey has worked on, the packing plant south of Boise closed and the Board of Directors are reassessing shipping & pricing the cattle. Wulfhorst has begun coordinating with the Idaho Rangelands Resource Commission for a 2007 assessment project and Rimbey cooperated w/ Pat Clark for an NRI submission re: impacts of wolves and how theyre changing livestock distribution and changes of ranch values related to losses.

    " New Mexico  Torell reported more detail on the ranch values research and how the economic factors work with this. The breakout of effects, when amenity values started occurring more in the 1960s/70s. Using the LP model to expand it to include forage production  to see how to optimally adjust to this.

    " Oregon  Tanaka explained linkages to a sustainable rural community initiative at OSU and new related faculty that may someday be involved with the project. As part of the Sustainable Rangelands Roundtable, the group that proposed the indicators is testing those in a pilot project in central Oregon being conducted by the federal agencies. Some of the agency personnel are planning to collect data on the socio-economic in relation to the land/owner fragmentation occurring within that region. This also connects to one of the components of the Joint Fire Science Tanaka/Rimbey are working on.

    " Colorado  Seidl is 100% Extension, and his time runs across several projects related to community, natural resources, and economic impacts. Theyre focusing on the local public good aspects of ranching, i.e., in Routt Co., re: residents and tourists values are for the landscape. Trying to determine the working landscape aspects that relate to the local economy. Theyre also collaborating w/ R. Coupal re: fiscal impacts of 35 ac development and cost of community services. Dawn Thilmany is working on community food systems research. Theyre also working on a project with the State Land Board re: market values and transfer of the land. " Wyoming  Foulke & Taylor reported on an ATV survey, and a Random-digit-dial survey of the general population to understand prevalence of ATV use. Another project is trying to assess exurban landownership. Another project is working on how PILT $ are generated for the counties. Two Forest Revision Plans will try to take into account local affects on the social and economic landscape, but the oil & gas development impacts are significant on many of these.

    " Utah  Snyder reported that hes converting the LP model hes used, and have worked with some of the precipitation data to run some additional analyses.

    Social Science Assessment with the BLM Tanaka reported more on the Social Science Capabilities Assessment w/ the BLM. The Washington D.C. office is concerned about the significant decrease in the number of social scientists and are wanting an assessment of how to address these gaps. The effort includes interviews of the current social scientists, an Internet survey of agency managers, and interviews with RAC representatives. At the end of the study, they will create a business plan for action about hiring more social scientists or outsourcing these tasks.

    New Proposal Discussion Tanaka explained one of the intents of the renewal was to try to involve more people from the ecological disciplines, but no one from that perspective is in attendance now. There was discussion about trying to piecemeal smaller projects together that become a regional focus in aggregate or whether the team ought to move toward writing larger coordinated grants at the national level.

    One of the interim activities will be collection of preliminary data on different indicators (i.e., from NASS). Torell will visit with Rhonda Skaggs to see if she has a template structure built for assimilating trying to collect some of this information. One of the ideas was to start tracking a combination of land-use change, size of ranch operation, socio-demographic change, and what criteria define range counties vs. amenity counties to understand where some of the range is most concentrated. These patterns are affected more & more by off-farm income, diversity of ranch size and how values get aggregated, the need to disaggregate dairy from beef cows.

    One aspect would be the vegetation layer in order to track the % of range within a county area, and then try to assess the rate of fragmentation and its proximity to different SMAs that are also in flux.

    The group suggested some possible survey questions for the IRRC study in Idaho: 1) Whats driving the landscape change and fragmentation (demographics, BLM change in mgt, etc)? 2) Do you see this fragmentation as a problem? 3) Does the fragmentation impact access for you to x, y, z?

    The meeting adjourned at 4:30pm.

    JANUARY 9TH

    The meeting reconvened at 9:00am,

    A discussion was held about election of officers and the 2008 annual meeting. One option being considered is to meet in conjunction with the Western Regional Science Association (WRSA) meeting in February 2008. At the election of officers, it was unanimously decided that Tex Taylor will serve as chair until the 2008 meeting, Wulfhorst will serve as Chair-elect, and Harris will serve as secretary. At that point, according to the proposal, each incumbent will move up one position (Wulfhorst to Chair and Harris to Chair-elect) even though Wulfhorst will be on sabbatical and may not be able to attend; a new secretary will be elected. Harris, Taylor, and Rimbey will be in charge of organizing a symposium in conjunction with the WRSA or related meeting.

    Discussion was held to continue coordination about moving forward on the project objectives. Based on the outline of activities created yesterday, we need to begin communicating with one another

    We had a teleconference call with Rhonda Skaggs about building a strategy for accessing some of the ARMS and NASS data. She mentioned that theres not much data (i.e., cow/calf information) that would correlate to the land-base information. She does think the NAHMS data has some potential w/ over data from over 2,700 cow/calf producers and about 27 states. Right now, its unclear whether this data can be broken out at the state level. Another project she is following up on relates to the ARS/Jornada Experiment Station to be reviewing data of the human dimension information linked to specific allotments. We need to pay attention to the fact that those in the ranching industry is NOT monolithic as a demographic, because different producers have different goals (lifestyle, production, etc). A discussion followed that focused on animal-ID and feed-market issues and how these relate to the imperfections of available data.

    The meeting adjourned at 10:40am.

    Accomplishments:
    Outline of Activities for 2007-2008

    Objective 1  Determine the level, trends, and effects of land fragmentation at the state level " H1: Do the levels of land fragmentation differ among and within states by land ownership. o Torell-lead, Skaggs, Foulke, Rimbey, Godfrey, and Tanaka, and McCollum (Neil Wilkins @ Texas A&M, and Dave Theobald @ CSU  will be contacted for potential coordination re: methodology, etc.) " H2: Rangeland buyers can be categorized as to the reason they purchase rangeland. (Evaluate new rangeland sales and purposes/reasons for purchase  categorize the buyers.) o Torell, Rimbey-lead, McCollum, H. Gosnell (OSU) " H3: What types of legal and policy conflicts arise due to the fragmentation of land ownership and what strategies are available to resolve these problems? o delay this for now until we have legal expertise to rewrite this and concentrate on different institutions (tax, zoning, etc) by state (and/or county where it exists)

    Objective 2  Determine the relationship of level of land fragmentation with ecological factors

    " H1: the presence of invasive species is not affected by the level of land fragmentation o This hypothesis is not being covered at this at this time " H2: the severity of wildfire is not affected by the level of land fragmentation o (Tanaka-lead, Harris, Rimbey, Steve Davies) from the JFS/Great Basin/Sage Steppe

    Objective 3  Determine the relationship of level of land fragmentation with economic factors " H1: Measuring the fiscal impacts on local governments and school districts in the Western United State from land fragmentation resulting from conversion of ranchland to rural residential development. o R. Coupal, Taylor-lead, Seidl " H2: Are the distributional impacts of alternative public land management policies and land fragmentation similar for all entities in a regional economy? o Taylor, Harris-lead " H3: Are emerging institutional arrangements for conserving working landscapes reasonable forms of public investment and how are they affected by fragmented landownership and diverse public and private values? o Seidl-lead, Huntsinger

    Objective 4  Determine the relationship of level of land fragmentation with social factors " H1: Social cohesion, community identity, and perceptions of well-being become increasingly threatened at individual and community levels as a function of landscape fragmentation, land-ownership diversification, and instability in the agricultural sectors. o Wulfhorst-lead, Huntsinger " H2: Bases for decision-making may often rest on social, cultural, and sets of related factors that reveal complex choices about economic and ecological tradeoffs. o Huntsinger, Wulfhorst-lead

    Objective 5  To integrate an analysis of the social, economic, and ecological issues related to land fragmentation " H1: Social, economic, and ecological aspects of land fragmentation can be combined into an assessment of rangeland sustainability. o Tanaka & Torell lead, but all involved

    We expect that this project will lead to economic, social, and ecological impact analysis that will be useful to local, regional, and national policy makers. Local, state, and regional decision-makers will be able to use the information as they contemplate various policies to address rangeland fragmentation and its interaction with issues such as wildland fire, invasive species management, and wildlife habitat. As policies are designed to address those issues, alternatives that fit with the different types of landowners in a fragmented landscape will be critical. The information derived from this project will aid in the development of viable alternatives.

    Impact Statements:
    1. Data collection leading to development of a business plan & strategy for the BLM to rectify its dwindling expertise in the areas of social science inquiry.
    2. Identification and development of a critical state of the state of public perception about the meaning and value of rangelands within Idaho, pertaining to the future of resources devoted to research, teaching, and outreach as well as land-use changes affecting rangelands.
    3. Hedonic models have determined that livestock income has very little effect on ranch values in the west. Public grazing permits also have value and respond to the same general trends as do private lands.
    4. Research on livestock production and policy impacts starts with good beef price data. A database of regional and state-level beef prices were compiled into Access. The prices are weekly by animal class and weight and were obtained from Cattle-Fax. The Copyrighted data has limited release but is available to all researchers involved with WERA-55 or W1192. A users manual about the data and accessing the data was written and is available to cooperating researchers in the western region.
    5. Economic analysis of IDLs grazing program has been used by policy makers to propose new grazing policies in Idaho. The evaluation of the grazing lease rate determination model is also being used to forecast revenue generation for the states grazing program.
    Last Modified: 13-Jun-2007

    Date of Annual Report: 09/03/2008

    Report Information:
  • Annual Meeting Dates: 02/17/08 to 02/20/08
  • Period the Report Covers: 10/2007 to 09/2008

    • Participants:
    Brief Summary of Minutes of Annual Meeting:

    URL: Copy of minutes
    Accomplishments:
    Short-Term Outcomes: This project essentially is a policy-oriented regional project and the short-term outcomes are primarily decisions made by various government or policy groups related to public lands and their relationship to local communities and states. In many cases, the information and data provided as a result of this project are used as the primary source of data in the decision-making process. Outputs: There are a variety of outputs including gathered data, written fact sheets, research papers, and peer-reviewed journal publications. A complete list is provided as part of the annual meeting minutes.

    Activities: A description of the various activities engaged in by project participants is included in the annual meeting minutes.

    Milestones: An optimization model which includes farm-level linear programming profit maximizing component and a input-output model has been constructed for Nevada. New Mexico and Idaho have completed an analysis of ranch-level impacts of changes in public land use. Legal analyses of some of the numerous public and enviornmental laws have been completed by the Alaska participant.

    Impact Statements:
    1. The analysis of intensive management has provided federal land managers with a clearer understanding of their duties and responsibilities and provided state managers with a better understanding of the laws that constrain their federal counterparts.
    2. Results of study for Elko County Commissioners have also been accepted as input by U.S. Forest Service in their development of an EIS. In addition an additional study to estimate the county-wide economic impacts of rangeland fires in Elko County is being conducted. In addition a study has been commissioner to investigate potential economic impacts of changes to Elko and Eureka counties from proposed changes in the 1872 Mining Law
    3. Work on the economic impact of various development alternatives in Wyoming have facilitated a rational development process for the inherent conflicts between public lands and the emerging gas and oil development.
    Last Modified: 03-Sep-2008

    Date of Annual Report: 04/27/2009

    Report Information:
  • Annual Meeting Dates: 12/07/08 to 12/09/08
  • Period the Report Covers: 10/2008 to 09/2009

    • Participants:
    Brief Summary of Minutes of Annual Meeting:
    W-1192 Business Meeting Notes 8 December 2008 Reno, Nevada (In conjunction with Wildfires and Invasive Plants in American Deserts)

    Introductions and Last Year's Minutes: Introductions of all attending members read and last years minutes were read and accepted.

    Report from Administrative Advisor (Don Snyder): Like last year, state reports are critical this year because we will be in a third year review. Dr. Snyder encouraged W-1192 members to report multi-state and multi-institution work as well as any Cooperative Extension work. Dr. Snyder also handed out a paper listing the objectives and underlying hypotheses for W-1192. Members of W-1192 should send paragraphs addressing applicable objectives and hypotheses to Tom Folke. Tom Folke will draft a memorandum for Don Snyder.

    Report from USDA Advisor (Fen Hunt): Dr. Hunt discussed issues and changes in the Farm Bill. The CSREES has changed to the National Institute for Food and Agriculture. Dr. Hunt announced there may be changes in NRI. Given the change in Presidential administrations, there may be new changes with the appointment of a new Secretary of Agriculture. The policies of the new Secretary will be announced later.

    State Reports: (Wyoming and New Mexico submitted written reports. Other states gave oral accounts of activity.) Wyoming: Tom Folke and Tex Taylor gave the Wyoming state report. Work in Wyoming the past year has centered on forest planning for two national forests. Studies research impacts of communities adjacent to forest lands. The University of Wyoming is working to collect sheep price data that will later be used in a sheep ranching linear programming model. Given that the updated Census of Agriculture at the state level will be published in February, the University of Wyoming will update their agricultural sector impacts reports. They would like to work with other states that are members of W-1192 to develop additional text. Oregon: John Tanaka gave the Oregon state report. Dr. Tanaka announced that he will be leaving Oregon State University to be chair in the Department of Renewable Resources at the University of Wyoming. Dr. Tanaka will seek a person at Oregon State to be a member of W-1192. Dr. Tanaka addressed how the Sage STEP project has been incorporated into W-1192 objectives. The Sage STEP work investigates the economics of cheat grass and wildfires in the area. Dr. Tanakas ranch level linear programming model is currently being incorporated into a regional impact model by Tom Harris in Nevada. This is a joint cross-state effort. New Mexico: Allen Torell gave the New Mexico State report. Dr. Torell continues ranch value work in New Mexico. Dr. Torell continues work with ranch livestock prices (cattle and sheep). These price series will be used for multi-year cattle and sheep ranch level analysis. Rhonda Skaggs at New Mexico State continues work with BLM and ARS to collect ranch level data as to number of purchases. Idaho: Neil Rimbey gave the University of Idaho report. Investigating conflicts between domestic sheep and big horn sheep. Work continues to develop a sheep ranch level linear programming model. Additional work with cull cows going through auction to determine factors influencing sell price. J.D. Wulfhorst made a presentation on his work in Idaho. He developed a survey of large landowners as to wildlife habitat in southwest Idaho. Nevada: Tom Harris gave the University of Nevada, Reno report. Work continues in developing an integrated ranch level and Social Accounting Matrix model to estimate economic and distributional impacts of changes in public range grazing. Also, a supply determined interregional SAM model has been developed. A paper is being developed to estimate the distributional impacts of reduced public land grazing in rural Nevada on rural and urban Nevada. Alaska: Representatives from the state of Alaska could not make the meeting; however, they provided a state report of their activities. Alaska investigated the potential direct conflict between the states Intensive Management statute and enabling legislation for certain federal land management scenarios. Completed an analysis and peer reviewed journal article on why state agencies continue to violate certain statutes and risk they are taking. Regulatory changes to Fish and Wildlife Service are suggested. Investigated inconsistencies in Marine Mammal Protection Act regarding Native Alaskan hunting exemption and suggested approaches to clarify the act for Native Alaskan hunting. Lastly, examined assisted migration given endangered flora and fauna from global warming.

    Other Items: John Tanaka discussed the Western Rangelands Partnership Project and the sustainable rangelands round table. Don Snyder discussed that with the retirement of Bruce Godfrey, he would look for someone on the faculty at Utah State to join W-1192. John Tanaka discussed a BLM project that many members of W-1192 are also members of. He discussed how to complete the study and other activities to be completed.

    Election of Officers: A vote for Vice Chair and Secretary for W-1192 was made. J.D. Wulfhorst from University of Idaho was elected Vice Chair and Tom Harris from the University of Nevada, Reno was elected Secretary.

    The date and location for the next annual meeting was discussed. The next meeting will be held in either December or January in Albuquerque, New Mexico.

    Adjourn

    Accomplishments:
    Short-Term Outcomes:

    Results of Nevada public land grazing and mining studies have been accepted by Elko County Commissioners. Study has been accepted by BLM offices for incorporation into rangeland plans. In addition, study and procedures are being incorporated into Rangeland Five studies.

    Work done in Alaska may keep federal land managers from running afoul of the law and risking expensive and time consuming legal challenges. Should provide federal land managers with a clearer understanding of their duties and responsibilities and provide state managers with a better understanding of the laws that constrain their federal counterparts. This work will be of interest to all federal land and wildlife managers who deal with migratory birds, particularly in Alaska. The work related to the Marine Mammal Protection Act will be of interest to those agencies that manage marine wildlife under the statute, as well as to the native communities and organizations that depend on marine mammals for subsistence, economic, and cultural purposes. As the concept of Assisted Migration becomes a hot topic in conservation biology circles it will be useful for scientists, conservationists, and advocates to understand the legal regime in which such a program would have to operate.

    From New Mexico, Major variables found to influence land value included the amount of public and state land included with the ranch sale, ranch location, elevation and scenic appeal, distance to town, and the time of sale. Ranch values were found to increase over the 2003 - 2005 period and then they flattened out.

    In Oregon, the results from the multi-period ranch models used to evaluate economic and management alternative impacts were incorporated in peer reviewed publications and professional presentations. Economic impacts related to juniper control and cheatgrass control are being used to design management options and additional research on alternatives. Through the development of the ranch models, we have been able to determine more accurately how a yearlong beef cattle ranching operation should respond to policy and ecological changes given random weather and cattle prices. We were also able to learn about the different levels of responses for ranches in different parts of the western U.S. The main policies studied related to changes in public land grazing and those impacts on cattle ranches. Participation in the Sustainable Rangelands Roundtable has fostered an increase in understanding of the complex relationships among economic, sociological, and ecological components of the rangeland system. While we have some knowledge of each component, the roundtable has allowed discussion and learning of the interactions among the components. The survey of rangeland professionals about rangeland science education was published and the information is being used in university accreditation processes conducted by the Society for Range Management as well as by individual departments in evaluating their undergraduate degree requirements. The survey related to rangeland science education has stimulated broad discussion among rangeland practitioners and educators.

    Activities:

    Nevada: Development of an interregional fiscal social accounting model has been completed. This model derived impacts of reduced public land grazing in rural Nevada and accompanying impacts to urban Nevada. Also development of an integrated linear programming/Social Accounting Model continues. The procedures follow studies by Everett and McCarl (1978), Brink and McCarl (1974), and Bowker and Richardson (1981). The interregional fiscal SAM model follows procedures outlined by Kilkenny (1998). Later procedures will be developed to incorporate a ranch level linear programming model into a county computable general equilibrium model.

    Alaska: An examination of the potential for direct conflict between the states Intensive Management statute and the enabling legislation for certain federal land management agencies. After an analysis of the applicable statutes and case law was completed it was clear that the conflict in question is impairing the Park Service's ability to meet its statutory goals and the Park Service should preempt these rules on Park Service lands. An analysis of the Fish and Wildlife Service's failure to meet its obligations under the Migratory Bird Treaty Act to provide regulatory guidance to agencies on the matter of incidental takes. This work analyzes why agencies continue to violate the statute, what they are risking, and suggests regulatory changes for Fish and Wildlife that could correct this regulatory gap. An examination of several inconsistencies in the implementation of the Marine Mammal Protection Act regarding the native Alaskan hunting exemption and the meaning of the term "waste." An analysis of the relevant case law, statutes, and policy statements has been conducted. An examination of the issue of Assisted Migration, a method of dealing with increasingly endangered flora and fauna in a time of climate change, which is currently being debated by Conservation Biologists. An analysis of the existing legal support and legal obstacles to such a course of action has been completed.

    New Mexico: Data for 383 recent New Mexico sales were entered into a database and hedonic models were developed. Initial models including parcels less than 2 sections and others targeted for development predicted poorly with ranch-related variables and these small sales were deleted from the analysis. Complete data were available for 274 ranch sales negotiated between April 2002 and March 2008 and with a good distribution of sales across the state and across the Major Land Resource Areas (MLRAs) within the state. Model results were similar and included similar explanatory variables to earlier hedonic models published for New Mexico and the Great Basin. In these models, the dependent variable is defined to be $/total acre (including state and federal land acreage). Two new variables were added to the model. Google Maps were used to calculate the distance from the ranch headquarters to a paved road. As would be expected, increased dirt road distances to the ranch decreased ranch values. The second variable added was for ranches with perennial streams with fishing in northern New Mexico. As expected, having a stream with fishing access on the ranch was found to substantially increase ranch value. The R2 of the model was 94%. Dr. Rhonda Skaggs has continued work on developing a socio-economic database for individual BLM grazing allotments in SW New Mexico. Preliminary model development and results indicate that allotment turnover is strongly related to grazing conditions (e.g., high turnover is correlated with increased woody plant coverage and reduced grazing capacity). Data collection for this research project continues.

    Idaho: Rimbey continues to work on a regional research project dealing with the factors that influence ranch values in western states. We have updated ranch sale databases for New Mexico and the Great Basin with recent sales. We are attempting to bring in water rights and other variables into the models. Torells RANVAL website contains the models, publications, etc. associated with this project: http://ranval.nmsu.edu/. Large, 5 year, regional project funded by the Joint Fire Science Program (USDA and USDI) dealing with vegetation management issues related to the sagebrush biome, with particular emphasis on cheatgrass and juniper invasion. Tanaka (OSU) and Rimbey are providing the ranch-level analysis for this project. We will be enhancing GAMS models developed through WCC55/W1192 in this project that deals with Idaho, Oregon, Nevada and Utah scientists. Faculty at Nevada are providing regional analysis and non-market benefits and costs. Sage-STEP website provides more information on this large, regional project: http://www.sagestep.org/. Rimbey has been assisting a team from Idaho and California looking at the factors that influence the price of cull cows (both beef and dairy). Visual observations on factors like body condition, ambulatory nature, surgical evidence and others are made on cattle going through saleyards in Idaho and California. Coupled with this is hard data on cattle weights, prices. Over 19,000 head were entered into a database from sales this spring and fall (2008). The project will be completed this winter, with analysis and report to the Beef Council. Regression techniques are being used to determine the factors that influence value, as well as incidence of quality issues. Due to concerns about the IDL Grazing Program losing money, a Task Force was created to look at the issue. Rimbey is serving as the Academic Representative, along with livestock producers, Land Board and IDL staff. We met on about a monthly basis between December, 2005 and last winter. At that time, the Land Board created a grazing subcommittee that is looking at the departments grazing program. The Livestock Group is still meeting and providing input to IDL and the subcommittee. We have developed policy recommendations for dealing with conflicted leases, improvement credits, grazing management and staffing issues that are currently being considered by the Land Board. Rimbey also performed regression analysis on the lease rate calculation formulae with the addition of 14 years of new data. He is also working with Utah Trust Lands on developing a fee formula for updating their lease rates. A regional proposal submitted to BLM to determine the staffing and use of social and economic impact analysis within the agency was funded this past year for about $134,000. Wulfhorst and Rimbey are working with colleagues in Oregon, Wyoming and New Mexico. We have interviewed BLM social science staff (according to BLM, they number fewer than 25 out of the 11,000+ in BLM), critically reviewed selected management plans, EISs and other planning documents in terms of the use of social science techniques and impact assessment within the BLM. A telephone survey of BLM staff and managers was conducted by SSRU last winter and we are currently interviewing subgroups of BLM clientele (via Resource Advisory Councils) divided into Public-at-Large, Commodity and Conservation. A final report to BLM will be submitted during the winter of 2008-09. Wulfhorst and Rimbey were asked to conduct focus groups for the Idaho Rangeland Resource Commission (IRRC). We completed 6 of the sessions around the state. Purpose is to gain input from IRRC constituents (those that pay the bills) on existing programs and future direction and issues of the commission. Final report is available at: http://www.ag.uidaho.edu/aers/PDF/AEES/AEES07-03.pdf . Since Wulfhorst was on sabbatical leave for portions of 2007-2008 some of the product extensions from this data are still forthcoming. These data also provided the basis for development of several survey questions submitted as part of a partnership project with Idaho Preferred, a state-based program emphasizing sustainable and local agricultural production/consumption. These data will be used as pilot data to support a rangelands proposal anticipated to WSARE in coordination with producers and IRRC in 2009. Wulfhorst is working with an interdisciplinary team from Washington State University on a CEAP-Rangelands project focused on watershed health in southeastern Washington. The salmon-habitat impacted by overgrazing in this watershed with highly-erodible soils is critical and much effort has been oriented toward trying to alter best management practices among ranchers in the area with little success. Data collection will include qualitative interviews with key informants as well as a general public survey related to the multiple use aspects of the watershed and whether a more collaborative process could be devised to incentivize best management practices.

    Oregon:

    During most of the previous year, John Tanaka was on sabbatical leave as the Interim Executive Vice President of the Society for Range Management. While on leave, he was a co-organizer of the Wildfires and Invasive Plants in American Deserts Conference and Workshop held in Reno, Nevada from December 9-11, 2008. This conference drew 309 attendees. Information is on the website at http://rangelands.org/deserts. A grant was submitted and funded from the USDA-CSREES to lead the development of the Rangeland Stewardship and Health eXtension website in cooperation with at least 13 land grant universities. This project is just getting underway. The eXtension website will include information on all aspects of rangelands including ecology, economics, social systems, policy, and educational materials for adults and youth. (Objective 5, H1). Tanaka has continued involvement with the Western Rangelands Partnership that is responsible for the http://RangelandsWest.org website. The partnership has been designated as WERA-1008 and will be coordinating with the eXtension website listed above. (Objective 5, H1) Tanaka has continued involvement with the Sustainable Rangelands Roundtable, serving on its steering committee and leading its research objective. During the year, Tanaka served on a writing group to develop a book on rangeland ecosystem goods and services and worked with the National Agricultural Statistics Service to extract data from the Census of Agriculture for the Oregon Multi-Agency Pilot Project on economic and social indicators. (Objective 1, H1; Objective 2, H1) Large, 5 year, regional project funded by the Joint Fire Science Program (USDA and USDI) dealing with vegetation management issues related to the sagebrush biome, with particular emphasis on cheatgrass and juniper invasion. Tanaka (OSU) and Rimbey (UI) are providing the ranch-level analysis for this project. We will be enhancing GAMS models developed through WCC55/W1192 in this project that deals with Idaho, Oregon, Nevada and Utah scientists. Faculty at Nevada are providing regional analysis and non-market benefits and costs. Sage-STEP website provides more information on this large, regional project: http://www.sagestep.org/. (Objective 2, H2) A regional proposal submitted to BLM to determine the staffing and use of social and economic impact analysis within the agency was funded this past year for about $134,000. Tanaka is working with colleagues in Idaho, Wyoming and New Mexico. We have interviewed BLM social science staff (according to BLM, they number fewer than 25 out of the 11,000+ in BLM), critically reviewed selected management plans, EISs and other planning documents in terms of the use of social science techniques and impact assessment within the BLM. A telephone survey of BLM staff and managers was conducted by UI last winter and subgroups of BLM clientele (via Resource Advisory Councils) divided into -Public-at-Large-, -Commodity- and -Conservation-. A final report to BLM will be submitted during the winter of 2008-09. (Objective 5, H1) Hannah Gosnell was funded by the USGS and Institute for Water and Watersheds at OSU in 2007-2008 to study the emergence and evolution of place-based, collaborative conservation efforts on ranch landscapes in the Upper Klamath Basin, and the ways in which social and ecological outcomes were related to various place-specific factors, including degree of ownership fragmentation. The team hypothesized that ownership fragmentation, which varies significantly among the three major tributaries to Upper Klamath Lake (the Wood, the Williamson, and the Sprague) was a contributing factor, along with other factors, to social fragmentation and conflict over natural resource management. Results are still being analyzed. Gosnell also submitted a grant proposal to the USDA CSREES with Bruce Weber and Junjie Wu (OSU AREC) to analyze the critical mass of farmland required to sustain local agricultural economies, and to determine whether there might be a -tipping point- related to farmland conversion and agricultural economic viability in the suburban and exurban West. The proposal was not funded. (Objective 1, H1 and H3; Objective 4, H1)

    Milestones: Progress is being made in all proposal areas, though some not as quickly as prolposed due to funding constraints. Milestone #1 was only partially successful due to a limited number of proposals accepted, though much more state-level funds were accessed through various sources that did allow progress. Milestone #2 was accomplished. Milestone #3 has been accomplished, though more will be coming out from the various project participants.

    Impact Statements:
    1. Preliminary model development and results indicate that allotment turnover is strongly related to grazing conditions (e.g., high turnover is correlated with increased woody plant coverage and reduced grazing capacity).
    2. Grazing permit value apparently has little to do with income from livestock production as traditionally believed. It is the land acreage that adds the most to ranchland value.
    3. Payments in Lieu of Taxes (PILT) are an important source of revenue from the Federal government for county government in Wyoming and other Western states.
    4. Hedonic models have determined that livestock income has very little effect on ranch values in the west. Public grazing permits also have value and respond to the same general trends as do private lands.
    Last Modified: 26-May-2009

    Date of Annual Report: 04/27/2011

    Report Information:
  • Annual Meeting Dates: 11/19/09 to 11/20/09
  • Period the Report Covers: 10/2009 to 09/2010

    • Participants:
    Brief Summary of Minutes of Annual Meeting:
    Presentations: The meeting commenced at 2:30pm on Thursday, 19 November, 2009 in the NMSU Department of Agricultural Economics. The first presentation was Urbanization and Land Use Land Cover Change in Dona Ana County New Mexico by Jack Wright of the NMSU Geography Department. Information on land use change in the Las Cruces area was covered, including a GIS animation of agricultural land conversions over time, with projections out to 2050. There was a discussion by the group about the factors affecting conversion, what type of information should be collected and the limitations of projections in general.

    Rhonda Skaggs of the NMSU Department of Agricultural Economics next presented Exploring Linkages Between Socio-Economic and Ecological Processes in Rangeland Landscapes. This was an update of Rhondas work that she presented in our Hawaii meeting in 2006. New information was incorporated into this presentation as well as an innovative GIS time series application that generated a lot of discussion among the group. The project centers on tracking rangeland allotment ownership over time to try and understand the causes and effects of change in ownership. This is ongoing work.

    Business meeting minutes: Following the presentations, the business portion of the meeting began. The main issue discussed was the future of the project. Some members present voiced concern that even though project participants are working on projects germane to the regional project, there is no one project inclusive of all or most of the project members. It was decided that we should continue to discuss the issue and seek input from those who were not present before making any decisions. The meeting adjourned at 4:45 pm.

    Field Trip: Alan Torrell organized a group field trip for Friday with Ed Frederickson and Frederico Gonzalez of the USDA-ARS Jornada Experimental Range (http://researchmag.nmsu.edu/2008_SP/feature_cattle.html ) to look at a rural residential development near San Lorenzo in south central New Mexico. The developers are trying to develop a piece of agricultural land into an eco-friendly community. It was a good.

    Accomplishments:
    Short-Term Outcomes:

    Results of Nevada public land grazing and mining studies have been accepted by Elko County Commissioners. Study has been accepted by BLM offices for incorporation into rangeland plans. In addition, study and procedures are being incorporated into Rangeland Five studies.

    Work done in Alaska may keep federal land managers from running afoul of the law and risking expensive and time consuming legal challenges. It should provide federal land managers with a clearer understanding of their duties and responsibilities and provide state managers with a better understanding of the laws that constrain their federal counterparts. This work is of interest to all federal land and wildlife managers who deal with migratory birds, particularly in Alaska. The work related to the Marine Mammal Protection Act will be of interest to those agencies that manage marine wildlife under the statute, as well as to the native communities and organizations that depend on marine mammals for subsistence, economic, and cultural purposes. As the concept of Assisted Migration becomes a hot topic in conservation biology circles it will be useful for scientists, conservationists, and advocates to understand the legal regime in which such a program would have to operate.

    From New Mexico, major variables found to influence land value included the amount of public and state land included with the ranch sale, ranch location, elevation and scenic appeal, distance to town, and the time of sale. Ranch values were found to increase over the 2003 - 2005 period and then they flattened out.

    In Oregon, economic impacts related to juniper control and cheatgrass control are being used to design management options and additional research on alternatives. Through the development of the ranch models, we have been able to determine more accurately how a yearlong beef cattle ranching operation should respond to policy and ecological changes given random weather and cattle prices. We were also able to learn about the different levels of responses for ranches in different parts of the western U.S. The main policies studied related to changes in public land grazing and those impacts on cattle ranches. Participation in the Sustainable Rangelands Roundtable has fostered an increase in understanding of the complex relationships among economic, sociological, and ecological components of the rangeland system. While we have some knowledge of each component, the roundtable has allowed discussion and learning of the interactions among the components. The survey of rangeland professionals about rangeland science education was published and the information is being used in university accreditation processes conducted by the Society for Range Management as well as by individual departments in evaluating their undergraduate degree requirements. The survey related to rangeland science education has stimulated broad discussion among rangeland practitioners and educators.

    Activities:

    Nevada: Development of an interregional fiscal social accounting model has been completed. This model derived impacts of reduced public land grazing in rural Nevada and accompanying impacts to urban Nevada. Also development of an integrated linear programming/Social Accounting Model continues. The procedures follow studies by Everett and McCarl (1978), Brink and McCarl (1974), and Bowker and Richardson (1981). The interregional fiscal SAM model follows procedures outlined by Kilkenny (1998). Later procedures will be developed to incorporate a ranch level linear programming model into a county computable general equilibrium model.

    Alaska: An examination of the potential for direct conflict between the states Intensive Management statute and the enabling legislation for certain federal land management agencies. After an analysis of the applicable statutes and case law was completed it was clear that the conflict in question is impairing the Park Service's ability to meet its statutory goals and the Park Service should preempt these rules on Park Service lands. An analysis of the Fish and Wildlife Service's failure to meet its obligations under the Migratory Bird Treaty Act to provide regulatory guidance to agencies on the matter of incidental takes. This work analyzes why agencies continue to violate the statute, what they are risking, and suggests regulatory changes for Fish and Wildlife that could correct this regulatory gap. An examination of several inconsistencies in the implementation of the Marine Mammal Protection Act regarding the native Alaskan hunting exemption and the meaning of the term "waste." An analysis of the relevant case law, statutes, and policy statements has been conducted. An examination of the issue of Assisted Migration, a method of dealing with increasingly endangered flora and fauna in a time of climate change, which is currently being debated by Conservation Biologists. An analysis of the existing legal support and legal obstacles to such a course of action has been completed.

    New Mexico: Data for 383 recent New Mexico sales were entered into a database and hedonic models were developed. Initial models including parcels less than 2 sections and others targeted for development predicted poorly with ranch-related variables and these small sales were deleted from the analysis. Complete data were available for 274 ranch sales negotiated between April 2002 and March 2008 and with a good distribution of sales across the state and across the Major Land Resource Areas (MLRAs) within the state. Model results were similar and included similar explanatory variables to earlier hedonic models published for New Mexico and the Great Basin. In these models, the dependent variable is defined to be $/total acre (including state and federal land acreage). Two new variables were added to the model. Google Maps were used to calculate the distance from the ranch headquarters to a paved road. As would be expected, increased dirt road distances to the ranch decreased ranch values. The second variable added was for ranches with perennial streams with fishing in northern New Mexico. As expected, having a stream with fishing access on the ranch was found to substantially increase ranch value. The R2 of the model was 94%. Dr. Rhonda Skaggs has continued work on developing a socio-economic database for individual BLM grazing allotments in SW New Mexico. Preliminary model development and results indicate that allotment turnover is strongly related to grazing conditions (e.g., high turnover is correlated with increased woody plant coverage and reduced grazing capacity). Data collection for this research project continues.

    Idaho: Rimbey continues to work on a regional research project dealing with the factors that influence ranch values in western states. We have updated ranch sale databases for New Mexico and the Great Basin with recent sales. We are attempting to bring in water rights and other variables into the models. Torells RANVAL website contains the models, publications, etc. associated with this project: http://ranval.nmsu.edu/. Large, 5 year, regional project funded by the Joint Fire Science Program (USDA and USDI) dealing with vegetation management issues related to the sagebrush biome, with particular emphasis on cheatgrass and juniper invasion. Tanaka (OSU) and Rimbey are providing the ranch-level analysis for this project. We will be enhancing GAMS models developed through WCC55/W1192 in this project that deals with Idaho, Oregon, Nevada and Utah scientists. Faculty at Nevada are providing regional analysis and non-market benefits and costs. Sage-STEP website provides more information on this large, regional project: http://www.sagestep.org/. Rimbey has been assisting a team from Idaho and California looking at the factors that influence the price of cull cows (both beef and dairy). Visual observations on factors like body condition, ambulatory nature, surgical evidence and others are made on cattle going through saleyards in Idaho and California. Coupled with this is hard data on cattle weights, prices. Over 19,000 head were entered into a database from sales this spring and fall (2008). The project will be completed this winter, with analysis and report to the Beef Council. Regression techniques are being used to determine the factors that influence value, as well as incidence of quality issues. Due to concerns about the IDL Grazing Program losing money, a Task Force was created to look at the issue. Rimbey is serving as the Academic Representative, along with livestock producers, Land Board and IDL staff. We met on about a monthly basis between December, 2005 and last winter. At that time, the Land Board created a grazing subcommittee that is looking at the departments grazing program. The Livestock Group is still meeting and providing input to IDL and the subcommittee. We have developed policy recommendations for dealing with conflicted leases, improvement credits, grazing management and staffing issues that are currently being considered by the Land Board. Rimbey also performed regression analysis on the lease rate calculation formulae with the addition of 14 years of new data. He is also working with Utah Trust Lands on developing a fee formula for updating their lease rates. A regional proposal submitted to BLM to determine the staffing and use of social and economic impact analysis within the agency was funded this past year for about $134,000. Wulfhorst and Rimbey are working with colleagues in Oregon, Wyoming and New Mexico. We have interviewed BLM social science staff (according to BLM, they number fewer than 25 out of the 11,000+ in BLM), critically reviewed selected management plans, EISs and other planning documents in terms of the use of social science techniques and impact assessment within the BLM. A telephone survey of BLM staff and managers was conducted by SSRU last winter and we are currently interviewing subgroups of BLM clientele (via Resource Advisory Councils) divided into Public-at-Large, Commodity and Conservation. A final report to BLM will be submitted during the winter of 2008-09. Wulfhorst and Rimbey were asked to conduct focus groups for the Idaho Rangeland Resource Commission (IRRC). We completed 6 of the sessions around the state. Purpose is to gain input from IRRC constituents (those that pay the bills) on existing programs and future direction and issues of the commission. Final report is available at: http://www.ag.uidaho.edu/aers/PDF/AEES/AEES07-03.pdf . Since Wulfhorst was on sabbatical leave for portions of 2007-2008 some of the product extensions from this data are still forthcoming. These data also provided the basis for development of several survey questions submitted as part of a partnership project with Idaho Preferred, a state-based program emphasizing sustainable and local agricultural production/consumption. These data will be used as pilot data to support a rangelands proposal anticipated to WSARE in coordination with producers and IRRC in 2009. Wulfhorst is working with an interdisciplinary team from Washington State University on a CEAP-Rangelands project focused on watershed health in southeastern Washington. The salmon-habitat impacted by overgrazing in this watershed with highly-erodible soils is critical and much effort has been oriented toward trying to alter best management practices among ranchers in the area with little success. Data collection will include qualitative interviews with key informants as well as a general public survey related to the multiple use aspects of the watershed and whether a more collaborative process could be devised to incentivize best management practices.

    Oregon: During most of the previous year, John Tanaka was on sabbatical leave as the Interim Executive Vice President of the Society for Range Management. While on leave, he was a co-organizer of the Wildfires and Invasive Plants in American Deserts Conference and Workshop held in Reno, Nevada from December 9-11, 2008. This conference drew 309 attendees. Information is on the website at http://rangelands.org/deserts. A grant was submitted and funded from the USDA-CSREES to lead the development of the Rangeland Stewardship and Health eXtension website in cooperation with at least 13 land grant universities. This project is just getting underway. The eXtension website will include information on all aspects of rangelands including ecology, economics, social systems, policy, and educational materials for adults and youth. (Objective 5, H1). Tanaka has continued involvement with the Western Rangelands Partnership that is responsible for the http://RangelandsWest.org website. The partnership has been designated as WERA-1008 and will be coordinating with the eXtension website listed above. (Objective 5, H1) Tanaka has continued involvement with the Sustainable Rangelands Roundtable, serving on its steering committee and leading its research objective. During the year, Tanaka served on a writing group to develop a book on rangeland ecosystem goods and services and worked with the National Agricultural Statistics Service to extract data from the Census of Agriculture for the Oregon Multi-Agency Pilot Project on economic and social indicators. (Objective 1, H1; Objective 2, H1) Large, 5 year, regional project funded by the Joint Fire Science Program (USDA and USDI) dealing with vegetation management issues related to the sagebrush biome, with particular emphasis on cheatgrass and juniper invasion. Tanaka (OSU) and Rimbey (UI) are providing the ranch-level analysis for this project. We will be enhancing GAMS models developed through WCC55/W1192 in this project that deals with Idaho, Oregon, Nevada and Utah scientists. Faculty at Nevada are providing regional analysis and non-market benefits and costs. Sage-STEP website provides more information on this large, regional project: http://www.sagestep.org/. (Objective 2, H2) A regional proposal submitted to BLM to determine the staffing and use of social and economic impact analysis within the agency was funded this past year for about $134,000. Tanaka is working with colleagues in Idaho, Wyoming and New Mexico. We have interviewed BLM social science staff (according to BLM, they number fewer than 25 out of the 11,000+ in BLM), critically reviewed selected management plans, EISs and other planning documents in terms of the use of social science techniques and impact assessment within the BLM. A telephone survey of BLM staff and managers was conducted by UI last winter and subgroups of BLM clientele (via Resource Advisory Councils) divided into -Public-at-Large-, -Commodity- and -Conservation-. A final report to BLM will be submitted during the winter of 2008-09. (Objective 5, H1) Hannah Gosnell was funded by the USGS and Institute for Water and Watersheds at OSU in 2007-2008 to study the emergence and evolution of place-based, collaborative conservation efforts on ranch landscapes in the Upper Klamath Basin, and the ways in which social and ecological outcomes were related to various place-specific factors, including degree of ownership fragmentation. The team hypothesized that ownership fragmentation, which varies significantly among the three major tributaries to Upper Klamath Lake (the Wood, the Williamson, and the Sprague) was a contributing factor, along with other factors, to social fragmentation and conflict over natural resource management. Results are still being analyzed. Gosnell also submitted a grant proposal to the USDA CSREES with Bruce Weber and Junjie Wu (OSU AREC) to analyze the critical mass of farmland required to sustain local agricultural economies, and to determine whether there might be a -tipping point- related to farmland conversion and agricultural economic viability in the suburban and exurban West. The proposal was not funded. (Objective 1, H1 and H3; Objective 4, H1)

    Milestones: Progress is being made in all proposal areas, though some not as quickly as prolposed due to funding constraints. Milestone #1 was only partially successful due to a limited number of proposals accepted, though much more state-level funds were accessed through various sources that did allow progress. Milestone #2 was accomplished. Milestone #3 has been accomplished, though more will be coming out from the various project participants.

    Impact Statements:
    1. 1. Model development and results indicate that allotment turnover is strongly related to grazing conditions (e.g., high turnover is correlated with increased woody plant coverage and reduced grazing capacity).
    2. 2. It has been shown that grazing permit value has little to do with income from livestock production as traditionally believed. It is the land acreage that adds the most to ranchland value. Other (often nonpecuniary)benefits add value to the ranchland that is different and sometimes significant from the land appreciation value of farmland valuation.
    3. 3. Payments in Lieu of Taxes (PILT) are an important source of revenue from the Federal government for county government in Western states. Any changes in PLT will bring about significant changes in local community viability.
    4. 4. Hedonic models have determined that livestock income has very little effect on ranch values in the west. Public grazing permits also have value and respond to the same general trends as do private lands.
    Last Modified: 01-Jul-2011

    Date of Annual Report: 10/20/2011

    Report Information:
  • Annual Meeting Dates: 09/15/11 to 09/16/11
  • Period the Report Covers: 10/2010 to 09/2011

    • Participants:
    Brief Summary of Minutes of Annual Meeting:
    Business meeting minutes: The meeting commenced at 2:00 pm on Thursday, 15 September, 2011 in the University of Idaho, Department of Agricultural Economics & Rural Sociology. J.D. Wulfhorst started the meeting by offering the minutes from the 2009 Las Cruces meeting for approval by the committee. Tom Harris made a motion to accept the minutes. The motion was seconded by Neil Rimbey. The minutes were passed unanimously.

    Discussion of a potential future project followed. This would be a follow-up on a Department of Interior report that emphasized tourisms role in public lands and minimized livestock grazing. Potential funding sources for this project were discussed.

    State reports for Idaho, New Mexico and Wyoming were presented to the committee. Discussion of these projects and the progress (or lack thereof) for the committee continued for some time.

    Following Dr. Daley-Laursens presentation, the committee continued with a discussion of activities on a state-by state basis. This went on until 5:30pm, when the committee adjourned for the evening.

    The committee reconvened at 8:00am the following morning. Discussion centered on the future of the project. The committee reviewed the projects outcomes for the past six years. A number of committee members voiced concern although there have been a number of projects germane to the committees hypotheses over the years, there has not been the collaboration and grantsmanship that was hoped for. Other members said that the hypotheses were somewhat narrow, focusing mainly on the fragmentation of rangeland and that though this is still an issue, other issues, such as climate change are now more on the forefront of peoples minds. A lively exchange followed as committee members lamented the narrow-ness of the research topics du jour; and how within the six-year window since that last re-authorization, areas of focus have changed again.

    Discussion gradually shifted back to the issue at hand with advice from Don Snyder on the differences between W-committees and WERAs. Committee members voiced opinions that we should let the authorization of W-1192 lapse and re-constitute ourselves as a WERA with new, broader hypotheses more akin to the old W-192. The committee decided that this was a better direction for collaboration.

    The committee spent the next hour brain-storming new hypotheses that would be broader and more inclusive of the new members of the committee. The result was a set of draft hypotheses that will be the basis for a proposed new WERA focused on issues that impact rangelands in the Western U.S. John Tanaka, J.D. Wulfhorst and Tom Foulke volunteered to be the leadership committee to get the new proposal together.

    It was decided that we should move ahead to get our proposal in before the January deadline. As such, Tom volunteered to gather the state reports and minutes together into a report. It was also decided that we should meet again to finalize the package. John mentioned that the Range Sustainability Roundtable meeting at the end of November in Las Vegas would be a good place to connect with others that might be interested in participating. There is already a block of rooms at reasonable rates that could be expanded. The committee decided to use its 2012 meeting allotment in this way to finalize the proposal.

    Presentation: The committee interrupted deliberations for a presentation by Steven Daley-Laursen, University of Idaho, Office of Research and Economic Development. Dr. Daley-Laursen addressed the committee on the Northwest Climate Science Center Initiative in stimulate collaboration from the committee. He underscored the need for bringing in social scientists perspective into a project that is largely bio-physically based.

    The meeting adjourned at 11:15am.

    Field Trip: J.D. Wulfhorst organized a group field trip for Friday afternoon with Courtney Smith of Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) in Washington and in conjunction with the Asotin County Conservation District to tour a watershed rehabilitation project near Clarkston, Washington. Some committee members had to catch flights out and were unable to attend.

    The tour highlighted work to restore Asotin Creek. There have been a number of projects over the years to enhance the creek for steelhead and riparian habitat for anadromous fish, water quality, and overall watershed health. These included exclusion fencing and off-stream water development. The group also saw where a mile of stream was re-built with meanders.

    The group returned to Clarkston about 4:00pm.

    Accomplishments:
    Outputs: (see list of references later in the report) Activities: California State Report, September 2011 Lynn Huntsinger, UC Berkeley As California has not reported since 2005, this covers 2005-2011. W1192 Objectives with accomplishments: The overarching goal of the project is to determine whether rangeland fragmentation is causing ecological, economic, and social impacts and the extent of the related individual and cumulative impacts. Work accomplished that met specific objectives includes: Goal 1. Determine the level, trends, and effects of land fragmentation at the state level: Two surveys were conducted at the state level that allowed assessment of fragmentation of rangelands and trends in demographic characteristics and ownership among rangeland landowners. Forty two percent of forest and rangelands in California are privately owned. In the first survey, forest and rangeland owners in ten representative counties throughout the state were surveyed. Long-time landowners value their properties for their natural amenities and as a financial investment. Owners of properties of 500 or more acres were significantly more likely to use their land for income production than owners of smaller properties, and they were also more likely to carry out or be interested in environmental improvements. Many forest and rangeland landowners reported they had been previously approached to sell their land for development. Only about one-third had participated in conservation programs; few had conservation easements. Although a number of organizations provide advice highly-ranked by landowners, no individual organization currently reaches more than 30% of forest and rangeland owners, and these groups together reach less than 60% of landowners. The lowest ranked advice came from regulatory agencies, indicating that land management advice from regulatory authorities is least appreciated by landowners. Owners of large properties (> 200 hectares) were substantially more likely to have received land management information than smaller-sized properties, and from a broader group of organizations. As ownerships become increasingly fragmented, outreach focus and methods will need to shift to more effectively target the owners of smaller properties. On the other hand, some major outreach goals, such as conservation of wildlife, grazing, or agricultural communities, will continue to rely on effective outreach to owners of larger properties. The second, a longitudinal study of California hardwood rangelands showed significant change in landowner characteristics and goals. Results of three studies spanning 1985 to 2004 showed that education and research aimed at encouraging landowners to change woodland management has been reflected in a significant reduction in oak cutting and an increase in oak planting. Recent changes have come with the times: landowners were as likely to have consulted land trusts about oaks as Cooperative Extension, and the number engaged in production of crops or livestock continued to decline. On the other hand, the proportion of landowners, including ranchers, reporting that they live in the oak woodland to benefit from ecosystem services such as natural beauty, recreation, and lifestyle benefits significantly increased. Though owners of large properties an1d ranchers were more strongly against regulation and government interference than other respondents, this did not appear to affect oak values and management. Property size remained significantly related to landowner goals, values, and practices, with those producing livestock owning most of the larger properties. There has been a decline in the number of properties being studied due to conversion of some from oak woodland to other uses, though the remaining respondents still own at least 10% of the woodlands. Landowners with conservation easements or those who are willing to consider them, who believe oak recruitment is inadequate, or who use advisory services were significantly less likely to cut oaks and more likely to plant them. Policy, management, and outreach that support synergies between production and conservation activities, and that combine ecosystem service-based income streams that encourage keeping land intact and increased land-use stability, are needed to support conservation of private rangelands. Goal 2: Using opal phytoliths and historic records, shifts in vegetation as related to land fragmentation in the San Francisco Bay area were assessed. Goal 3. Determine the relationship of level of land fragmentation with social factors: Interviews, surveys and a literature synthesis were used to examine the impacts of rangeland fragmentation on rangeland conservation potential, rancher decisionmaking, and private-public land relationships. Emerging institutional arrangements for sustaining private rangelands and counter-acting rangeland fragmentation must cope with the inter-linkages between private and public values, and private and public lands. Using data from the BLM land survey office, archival records including interviews and historic letters, an analysis of the impacts of land fragmentation on the culture and lifeways of the Yurok Reservation in northern California was undertaken and completed.

    W-1192 Idaho State Report Neil Rimbey & J.D. Wulfhorst, University of Idaho GAMS-Related Projects: The end of the Sage-STEP project resulted in partial support for a graduate student (Ashley McClain) who will hopefully complete her MS in Spring 2012. She is working on juniper invasion issues in the sagebrush steppe and using 2 of the Owyhee models to look at the ranch-level economic impacts of Stage 1-3 invasion of juniper and control cost impacts. I have been working with Doug Johnson (Oregon State) and Pat Clark (USDA-ARS) on a project dealing with wolf-cattle interactions. My component deals with the ranch-level economic impacts of wolves. Budgets for 2 scenarios (wolves vs. low or no wolves) have been put together via producer panels and direct interviews. I hope to have some time in the next year to build the GAMS models for the 2 scenarios. Grazing Costs: Allen Torell and I were approached by SRM and the Public Lands Council to update the 1992 Grazing Cost information. There is quite a bit of interest in this right now, given the politics of grazing and interest in fees. The report was completed this last spring and is available at: http://www.cals.uidaho.edu/aers/PDF/AEES/2011/GrazingCost2011.pdf Cull Beef and Dairy Cattle: I worked with Jason Ahola (formerly at UI and now at CSU), Deb VanOverbeke (Okla State), Holly Foster (Calif. Beef Council) and numerous others on a project dealing with incidence and market impact of quality defects in cull beef and dairy animals. Animals were observed by trained people as they went through the saleyard. Factors such as body condition score, lameness, surgical evidence, along with market price received and weights were tabulated for animals. We came up with 2 publications out of project dealing with the incidence of the different quality factors and the relative effects on selling price. There was also a popular press article done on Dairy Beef Quality Assurance and that publication is available from the California Beef Council. State Lands Grazing Leases: Allen Torell and I worked with a consulting firm out of Washington state and submitted a bid on evaluating Idaho Department of Lands Grazing program. Our part of the project involves a survey of grazing lessees and lessors to gather private lease information and to determine the factors that influence them. Survey will be conducted this Fall/Winter, with report prepared by Spring, 2012. We are working with Stephanie Kane and Barbara Foltz, University of Idaho Social Science Research Unit, to help in the design of the instrument and conducting the phone survey, and analysis. Integrated Sagebrush Research Team: During 2011, a team of 4 Ph.D. students were recruited into an IGERT (renewal) project funded by NSF and based at the University of Idaho. The students will focus on ecohydrology, plant physiology, wildlife ecology, and social science aspects of core research questions in the sagebrush ecosystem. The students are required to co-author integrated chapters in their dissertations and will likely complete their degrees between 2014  2016. Their project will contribute directly to the themes aligned to W1192. Asotin Creek Watershed Project: As part of an ongoing subcontrat to Washington State University, the University of Idaho has also contributed to a USDA  CEAP Rangelands project focused on Evaluating the Impacts of Conservation Practices on Watershed Health in a Salmon-Bearing Rangeland Watershed; Asotin Creek, Washington. Several outputs of the project this year include: 1) ongoing analyses of survey and interview data from Years I and II; outlines and literature reviews for manuscripts and currently under construction; planned manuscripts will highlight issues of governance related to conservation; 2) implementation of intercept/observational surveys in the watershed which is an additional component to the project (see additional detail below); and 3) educational / outreach efforts in the watershed; during September 2011, we hosted a local tour of the watershed for a USDA Regional Project Working Group (W1192) with attendees from 7 different land-grant universities in the western US; the group focuses on rangeland economics with an emphasis on regional analyses and landscape fragmentation effects. 4) Intercept surveys: We designed an additional component to the data collection as intercept / observational surveys in 2010 in order to elaborate the data collection based on experience at the local level in Years I and II of the project. We have been conducting intercept surveys since the end of June 2011. Survey design dates were chosen systematically through the summer (e.g., first Monday, second Tuesday, plus 2 weekends a month). Post-Labor Day, data collection has been reduced to weekend trips only based on visitor use patterns. Early in the year (mid-summer), snow prevented access to several sites. Methodologically, efforts include counting cars for license-plate categorization by state, and conducting intercept surveys at major campsites and trailheads. As of September 15, we have conducted 87 surveys and surveys will continue through October, 2011. Preliminary results show a majority of visitors are from Washington State.

    W-1192 Nevada State Report Tom Harris, University of Nevada, Reno OBJECTIVES: Objective 3: Determine the relationship of level of land fragmentation with economic factors. The following are the numerical approaches: (1) A social accounting model will be developed for northeastern Nevada to incorporate public lands. (2) Incorporation of Cooperative Extension budgets into a county social accounting model. (3) Application of linear programming and social accounting model. (4) Impacts to changes in public lands policies derived through an integrated linear programming-social accounting model. (5) Develop an integrated ranch level linear programming model and Computable General Equilibrium Model. PROGRESS: Incorporated and extended procedures by Torell et al. (2002a) and Torell et al. (2002b), and Foulke et al (2006) to derive an integrated linear programming/Social Accounting Matrix model. Also, an analysis was initiated to develop a stochastic fire module. Procedures to develop an integrated ranch level linear programming and Social Accounting Matrix model follow procedures outlined by Everett and McCarl (1978), Brink and McCarl (1974), and Bowker and Richardson (1981). Also procedures are underway to develop an integrated ranch level linear programming, a stochastic rangeland fire model, and social accounting model have been developed. A doctoral graduate student graduated with a dissertation on this topic.

    W-1192 New Mexico State Report, September 2011 L. Allen Torell and Rhonda Skaggs 1. Do the levels of land fragmentation differ among and within states by land ownership? 2. Rangeland buyers can be categorized as to the reason they purchase rangeland. Evaluate new rangeland sales and purposes/reasons for purchase  categorize the buyers. 3. Are emerging institutional arrangements for conserving working landscapes reasonable forms of public investment and how are they affected by fragmented landownership and diverse public and private values? a. Enumerate and assess the public and private values of private rangelands. Ranch values - A thesis exploring and updating the hedonic ranch value model for New Mexico was completed in August 2011. Data included 659 sales for all areas of New Mexico. Model results were similar and included similar explanatory variables to earlier hedonic models published for New Mexico and the Great Basin. The R2 of the hedonic model was 94%. The updated RANVAL model has been released at http://ranval.nmsu.edu and can be used by appraisers, brokers, ranch buyers and sellers and others to estimate the 1996- 2010 trend in value for a particular New Mexico ranch. National Research Conservation Service (NRCS), Conservation Effects Assessment Program (CAEP): The Grazing Lands component of the CEAP National Assessment (CEAP-Grazing Lands) will quantify the environmental effects of conservation practices used on pastureland and rangeland. A comprehensive literature review and synthesis was initiated in 2006 and contributions were made to the social and economic chapter as well as the brush control practices chapter. The book and economic chapter are in print. Contributors to the social and economic chapter included Dr. John Tanaka, Dr. Mark Brunson, and Torell. Over 40 scientists provided input to the CEAP synthesis with book chapters including: Prescribed grazing Prescribed burning Brush management Range planting and seeding Riparian herbaceous cover Upland wildlife habitat management Herbaceous weed control Landscape analysis (Crosscutting chapter) Socioeconomics and ecosystem services (Crosscutting chapter) Cattle-Fax Beef Price Series: Cattle-Fax" has cooperated to make weekly beef prices available for western markets. The database of those prices was updated from Cattle-Fax and the data were rewritten to be shared in Excel instead of Access. Beef price data was updated for Dr. Octavio Ramirez to continue developing a beef price simulation model that can be used to generate stochastic price series for the W1192 regional linear programming models. Socio-Economic Factors Influencing Public Land Grazing Use: Data for individual BLM grazing allotments in SW New Mexico were collected during the last three years, and a database focusing on ownership instability and turnover is now being analyzed spatially and temporally by Rhonda Skaggs and collaborators from the Jornada Experimental Range. BY OBJECTIVE: 1. Objective 2. Rangeland buyers can be categorized as to the reason they purchase rangeland. Evaluate new rangeland sales and purposes/reasons for purchase  categorize the buyers. Data for 659 recent New Mexico sales were entered into a database and hedonic ranch value models were developed. The hedonic models quantify factors affecting the market value of western ranches. The data includes limited information about buyer characteristics. Dr. Rhonda Skaggs with graduate student Samuel Parry have almost completed data collection for a survey of public land ranchers in SW New Mexico. The survey focuses on impermanence factors affecting ranch management decision making in the region. The results of the survey and analysis will be the topic of Mr. Parrys M.S. thesis (expected completion in June 2012).

    Wyoming State Report, 15-16 September, 2011, Moscow, ID Thomas Foulke and David Taylor A. Current projects in support of W-1192 1. Economic analysis for the revised forest plan for the Shoshone National Forest. (objective 4): Ongoing work on an economic analysis for the Shoshone National Forest. This information will be used in the development of a revised management plan for the Forest. This project is being funded by the Governors State Planning Office. Note: This work is largely complete, but forest plan has yet to be approved. We have since been tasked with updating our work. This is in progress. 2. Economic analysis for the revised forest plan for the Bridger-Teton National Forest. (objective 4): Similarly, work is ongoing for an economic analysis for the Bridger-Teton National Forest. This information will be used in the development of a revised management plan for the Forest. This project is proving to be more challenging due to gas development in a more environmentally sensitive area. This project is also being funded by the Governors State Planning Office. Note: This work is largely complete, but forest plan has yet to be approved and we could be called upon for further analysis 3. Bureau of Land Management economic analyses (objective 4): Economic analyses for the BLM are in process for Resource Management Plans (RMPs) for the following Resource Management Areas: a. Lander RMA, b. Buffalo RMA, c. Big Horn RMA - This information will be used by the BLM in their decisions in creating a new Resource Management Plan each of these areas. This is a collaborative effort between the University of Wyoming, the BLM, and a private consulting firm contracted with by the BLM. 4. An Economic Analysis of Amendments to Resource Management Plans in Support of the Wyoming Sage Grouse Policy (objective 3): This project considers the economic impact of amendments associated with the Wyoming Sage Grouse Policy on six Resource Management Plans in Wyoming. The analysis considers the effects of the Sage Grouse policy on oil and gas development and production and on wind development. This information will be used by the BLM in their planning for incorporating the Sage Grouse Policy into their management plans. 5. The Economic Impact of Pathfinder Wind Development (objective 3): This project estimates the economic impact of a 3,000 megawatt wind development, proposed for eastern Wyoming. This would potentially be one of the largest wind projects in the country and could have significant impact to rural population in the region. Work is currently in the permitting phase. Pathfinders developers are keen to be good stewards and have proposed an innovative conservation bank with environmental off-sets to help move forward their project. Our work has been to estimate the economic impact in terms of jobs and income to the region. 6. The Economic Impact of Wolf Predation on Ranch Profitability (objective 1): This masters thesis (expected completion, spring 2012) investigates predation impacts at the ranch level. This project builds on previous work by focusing more on the estimation of indirect costs (Masters candidate, Jordan Steele). 7. The Economic Impact of Quaking Aspen Wind Development (objective 3): This project estimates the economic impact of a 150 megawatt wind development near Rock Springs, Wyoming. The project is in the initial phase of permitting and our work has yet to begin. 8. Food Security from Rangelands (objective 4): This project seeks to determine the quantity of red meat produced on rangelands in the western U.S. and to estimate what future impacts will be from fragmentation, climate change, wildfires, and other ecological stressors. 9. Sustainable Rangelands Roundtable (objective 4): Developing conceptual research papers on climate change, food security, non-tradiational energy development, and other impacts and uses of rangelands that address economic, social, and ecological impacts.

    Utah State Report Man-Keun Kim and D.L. Snyder A ranch-level economic model is linked to a social accounting matrix (SAM), a.k.a. LP-SAM, to investigate the impact of wildfire on the regional economy. This study is the expansion of Alevy and Harris (2008) with a stochastic wildfire model based on historical wildfire data. The LP-SAM model is used to estimate the impact of wildfire in southeast Oregon. Additional work was also done on a state-level ranch model in which trade-offs between agricultural production and carbon sequestration were examined. Model refinements are continuing.

    Impacts: See Next Section

    Impact Statements:
    1. Wildfire limits ranchers access to public grazing land and causes the economic losses of $20 million ~ $65 million per year in the near future, equivalently about 0.2%~0.5% of the total value of regional production. Cattle and ranching sector loses $7 million ~ $20 million per year per year. The value of agricultural and hay production decrease by $1.7 million ~ $5.1 million directly due to wildfire and indirectly due to reduction of cattle sector production.
    Last Modified: 20-Oct-2011
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